摘要
结合国际基准原油价格以及主要区域基准天然气价格,对比分析了2001年以来的加拿大油气价格历史走势和现状,提出加拿大油气价格存在被低估的可能性。通过研究,确认了与世界基准原油美国WTI原油存在价格挂钩关系的加拿大原油价格存在被低估现象,也确认了受地区基准天然气美国HenryHub天然气价格影响的加拿大天然气价格存在被低估现象。分析了加拿大改变油气价格被低估状况的可能性。改变原油价格被低估现象的关键在于缓解WTI原油定价节点库欣地区的原油高库存压力,改变天然气价格被低估现象的关键在于通过LNG出口将目标市场从低气价的北美地区转向高气价的亚太地区,这些改变正在进行但需要时间。预测了加拿大油气价格在未来的可能走势,并据此提出对加拿大油气新项目评价工作的启示。
In light of international benchmark crude prices and benchmark natural gas prices in major regions of the world,and the history and current state of Canadian oil & gas prices since 2001,Canadian oil & gas prices may well be underestimated.The Canadian crude price,linked to the US's WTI crude price which is the world crude benchmark,is underestimated,as is the Canadian natural gas price that is influenced by the US's Henry Hub natural gas price which is the local natural gas benchmark.The key to eliminating the crude-price underestimation is to mitigate the impact of high crude stocks in Cushing which is the hub for pricing WTI crude;the key to eliminating the natural-gas price underestimation is to shift the target market for LNG exports from low-gas-price North America to the highgas-price Asia Pacific region.Change is slowly happening and requires time.A possible trend in Canadian oil & gas prices is forecast,and lessons are offered for new oil & gas project valuations in Canada.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2013年第1期131-140,215,共10页
International Petroleum Economics
