人口老龄化对中国人口发展战略的制约及对策

The Restriction of Population Ageing on the Population Development Strategy of China and the Solution

运用AECI指数法、人口模拟和六普等数据,评估人口老龄化对中国人口发展战略的制约和影响。中国未来的人口老龄化经济压力有可能比以往预测的要大;老龄化的巨大压力使中国人口总量在本世纪上半叶无法控制在比目前少的水平;巨大的人口老龄化经济压力使得放宽现行生育政策势在必行;由于缺乏可行性,现行的国家人口发展战略亟待调整;制定新的人口发展战略必须考虑人口老龄化压力的可承受性;新的人口发展战略应当在坚持计划生育基本国策的前提下,从2013年起以中等偏大的幅度逐步放宽生育政策,实现人口规模压力和老龄化压力的战略平衡。

By adopting the AECI approach put forward by the author as well as population simulation and the sixth National Census data, this paper makes a systematic and quantitative evaluation of the restrictions and influences of population ageing on China＇ s population development strategy and China＇ s countermeasures. It is found that（ 1 ）the economic pressure of future Chi- na posed by population ageing is likely to be greater than expected ; （.2） the population size of China cannot be controlled at an ideal level （i. e. smaller than the current population）in the first half of the 21st Century due to the tremendous pressure posed by population ageing;（3 ）the tremendous pressure posed by population ageing makes it imperative to relax the current birth control policy; （4）the current population development strategy of China,due to its lack of feasibility, is awaiting adjustments ; （5） the bearability of the pressure of population ageing should be taken account of when stipulating new population development strategies ;and（6）a new population development strategy should be, under the premise of persisting in the basic state policy of family planning,to strike a strategic balance between the pressure from population size and that from population ageing by moderately and gradually relaxing the birth control policy starting from 2013.