中国老年人口的自理预期寿命变动——二元结构下的城乡差异分析

The Changes of Urban - rural Disparity in Disability - free Life Expectancy of Chinese Elderly under the Dualistic Structure

基于2005年"小普查"及2010年"六普"的主要汇总数据,利用生命表技术及Sullivan法,分析了城镇与农村老年人口预期寿命、自理预期寿命,及其差异的变化。城镇老年人口预期寿命及自理预期寿命均高于农村,而且随着年龄的提高,预期寿命与自理预期寿命的城乡差异呈缩减趋势。5年间老年人口自理预期寿命占余寿的比重呈上升趋势,而且农村该比重的上升幅度高于城镇。

Based on 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2005 and the Sixth National Population Census in 2010, using life table technique and Sullivan method, this paper analyses the changes of life expectancy（ LE）, disability - free life expectancy（ DFLE）, and their disparity among Chinese urban and rural elderly. The results show that urban elderly have higher LE and DFLE than their rural counterparts, and urban -rural disparity in LE and DFLE decrease with age. The results of comparison on LE and DFLE of the elderly in 2010 and 2005 demonstrate that LE and DFLE of urban and rural elderly advance between 2005 and 2010, the increasing speed of LE of rural elderly is lower than that of urban elderly, but the increasing speed of DFLE of rural elderly is higher than that of urban elderly. Our research results indicate that the proportion of DFLE in LE is increasing and the increasing speed of DFLE/LE is higher among rural elderly than that among urban elderly at all ages between 2005 and 2010.