2013年世界经济走势及应对之策

Analysis and countermeasures on Trend of Global Economy in 2013

受欧债危机反复恶化等不稳定和突发性因素的影响,2012年全球经济增长明显放缓。2013年世界经济仍处于复杂多变的深度结构性调整期。预计发达经济体仍将主要通过扩张性货币政策推动经济缓慢复苏,通过紧缩财政缓解债务压力;新兴经济体将面临较大通货膨胀压力,经济发展速度放缓,但仍将以远高于发达经济体的速度发展;欧美"再工业化"将推动全球产业结构加速调整和转型,并相对压缩国际贸易空间,贸易与投资保护主义进一步泛滥,国际宏观经济政策协调机制进入重大变革期;国际金融市场依旧充斥投机性活动,股票市场震荡上行概率加大,大宗商品价格总体上呈现上升态势。对此,中国应立足于转变经济发展方式,更加注重以深化收入分配制度改革为突破口扩大国内需求,以提升国家经济竞争力为核心推进国内产业结构调整,以推进国际宏观经济政策协调为重点改善外部发展环境。

Due to some sudden and unsteady factors, such as the repeated deterioration of the European debt crisis, the global economy had suffered an apparent decelerated growth in 2012. In this context, the world economy in 2013 will still be at a complicated stage of a profoundly structural adjustment. It is predicted in this paper that de- veloped economies will promote a sluggish recovery mainly through expansionary monetary policy, and ease debt stress through restrictive fiscal policy. Emerging economies are anticipated to enjoy a far higher growth rate than that of developed economies, although they are to be faced with major inflationary pressure and a decelerated eco- nomic growth. The reindustrialization in developed countries is expected to promptly motivate the adjustment and transition of the global industrial structure, and meanwhile relatively reduce international trade opportunities, as a result, protectionism of trade and investment will once aga!n outbreak while the international economic policy coor- dination is about to experience a great transition. International financial market will still be filled with speculative activities with bigger possibility that stock market is going to rise and fluctuate and the commodity price will appear to be rising. In 2013, China should focus on the transformation of the economic development pattern, emphasizing the reform of the income distribution system to expand domestic demand, upgrading national economic competitive- ness to advance the national industrial restructuring, promoting the international economic policy coordination to a- meliorate the external development environment.