基于灰色马尔科夫模型的武警部队后勤战备物资需求预测

The Armed Police Logistics War Material Demand Forecasting Based on Gray Markov Mode

武警部队后勤战备物资储备必须保持适度规模，以满足保障目标的可能性需求。针对战备物资消耗量的规律，建立灰色马尔科夫预测模型，其具有需要数据少、涉及参数少和预测精度高等特点，可以为部队战备物资储备提供一种快速准确的估算方法。

Armed police logistics war material reserves must keep an appropriate scale, in or- der to meet the possible demandof security objectives. According to the law of war material consumption, it establishes the gray Markov prediction model, which needs less data, in volves less parameter and is with higher forecasting precision, providing a fast and accurate estimation method for armed police war material reserves.