基于人机可靠性的重大危险源事故概率计算

Calculation of accident probability to major hazard installations based on human-reliability

重大危险源的管理与控制一直以来都是应急工作的重中之重。运用马尔可夫过程研究了化工企业重大危险源事故发生的概率,在基于马尔可夫事故概率假设模型的基础上,分析了化工企业重大危险源事故概率数学模型,并且考虑到有外界环境作用的影响下对重大危险源发生事故的影响,以及考虑在外界人员干预的条件下人员的素质及其操作正确与否对突发事件发生的影响,并进行了相关实例计算。所给概率模型可用于重大危险源的安全评价。

The management and control of major hazards has been the top priority of all emergency work. Markov process was used to conduct study on the probability of accident happening because of major hazard installations in chemical businesses. Based on the assumed model of Markov fault probability, mathematical model of fault probability in chemical businesses was analyzed. Markov Process was applied to study the accident probability of major hazard installations under two different circumstances, the one with man-interference and the other without man-interference. A practical computing example was given. The proposed model could be applied in safety assessment for the major hazard installations.