摘要
《隧道施工技术规范》规定,以变形监测信息作为隧道安全质量控制的主要依据,而变形分析、诊断、预测预报等工作,离不开数理统计理论方法的支持。笔者在隧拱沉降监测过程中,运用自(回)归理论、递(推回)归方法,成功开展了较准确的预测工作,发现自归理论具有对可疑数据敏感、模型调整灵活、计算程式化、逐日预报方便的特征;递归方法具备抗干扰能力强、模型形态稳健、适宜短期预报的优长。
By technical specifications for construction of highway tunnel,tunnel safety quality controlling in highway is based on deformation monitoring information.The deformation analysis is based on statistical theory.This paper adopts recursion and autoregressive method to forecast tunnel settlement accurately.By the comparison analysis,the results show that the autoregressive theory has many good characteristics,such as sensitivity to doubt data,easy to adjust model,stylization,and convenient to daily forecast,and the recursion theory has strong anti-jamming ability,stability,and fit to short time-period forecasting.
出处
《工程勘察》
2013年第4期74-76,84,共4页
Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying
关键词
自归
递归
预报
隧拱
模型
autoregression
recursion
forecasting
tunnel arch
model
