种群生存力分析在濒危动物保护与管理中的应用

The Application of Population Viability Analysis in the Conservation and Management of Endangered Wildlife

种群生存力分析(population viability analysis,PVA)是濒危物种保护研究的主要方法之一。自PVA提出之后,主要应用于预测濒危物种的灭绝概率。随着PVA软件的产生,其应用范围进一步扩展,甚至出现滥用和误用之例,使其准确性受到质疑。目前,PVA主要应用于濒危物种的保护与管理。本文从保护管理对策的制定与评估、再引入计划的评估和自然保护区设计与管理有效性评估三个方面进行综述;对PVA使用时的数据收集,以及模型的选择、建立和应用等需要注意的问题加以总结;从遗传数据的使用、基于个体的种群模型的发展、近交衰退和降低入侵物种的威胁等方面对PVA的应用提出展望。

Population viability analysis（PVA） is one of the main methods to protect endangered species.After it had been proposed,PVA is mainly used in the prediction of extinction probabilities of endangered species.With the emergence of PVA software,its application has been further extended,and the abuse of PVA has appeared.As a result a discussion about its accuracy has emerged.However,most conservation biologists believe the PVA is significant in the protection of endangered species.At present,PVA primarily apply to the conservation and management of endangered species.We summarized the application of PVA in the making out and assessment of management strategies,the evaluation of reintroduction plans,and the design and management effective assessment of the Nature Reserves.We also discussed the data collection and the selection,establishment and application of models in the use of PVA.Based on the previous studies,we suggested,in the future,the PVA could be more concerned in the use of genetic data,the development of individual-based population models,inbreeding depression and decreasing the threaten of invasive species.