负荷预测中气象因素的影响

Impact of Meteorological Factors on Load Forecasting

负荷预测对于电力系统的安全经济运行有着重要的作用,如何合理地考虑气象因素对负荷的影响是提高负荷预测精度的重要因素之一。基于菏泽地区各典型日的负荷气象数据,综合分析了温度、相对湿度、风速、降水等气象因素对负荷的影响,揭示了各种气象因素下负荷的变化规律,总结了负荷预测中气象数据的应用条件及存在问题,为在负荷预测管理系统中引入气象因素提供分析依据。

Load forecasting is of great significance to secure and economic operation of power systems. The key factor to improve the load forecasting accuracy is how to consider the influence of meteorological factors on power loads. Based on the typical meteorological data of loads in Heze area, the paper analyzes the effects of meteorological factors, e.g., temperature, humidity, wind speed and so on, on power loads. The regularity of loads is found under different meteorological conditions. Some application conditions of meteorological data and corresponding problems are summarized. The analysis foundations are provided for meteorological factors applying to load forecasting management system.