2014年新安江水库特丰来水预测

Abundant Incoming Flow Prediction of Xin'anjiang Reservoir in 2014

新安江水库来水年际变化大,水库特丰来水年预报对水库发电、防洪等综合利用功能的发挥具有重要意义。文中以新安江特丰来水年为研究对象,基于可公度预测理论,应用三元、五元预测模型进行计算分析。预测结果显示2014年新安江水库来水特丰,有发生类似于1983年特丰来水的可能;同时预报新安江水库2012年为丰水年。

The incoming flow of Xin’anjiang reservoir in every year is very different,so it is important to forecast the abundant incoming flow of the reservoir for generation,flood control and other comprehensive utilization functions of the reservoir.Xin’anjiang reservoir is the study object in this paper,based on the commensurable prediction theorem,the calculations and analysis are carried out by the ternary or quinary prediction model.The forecast results show that the incoming flow of Xin’anjiang reservoir is abundant in 2014,the incoming flow may be the same with that in 1983,and 2012 may be an plentiful raining year.