家庭抚育成本与宏观就业市场对人口出生率的调节模式

The Moderation Model of the Cost of Family Upbringing and Macro-employment Market on Birth Rate

人口出生率是评价人口发展速度的重要指标,文章针对十二五期间经济启暖过程中的人口出生率上扬现象,选取改革开放后的时间序列数据,构建人口出生率与家庭抚育成本之间的转移函数模型。旨在针对出生率的变革历程进行事后模拟与动态预测,对抚育成本类的影响因素加以归纳和辨识。转移函数模型结论证明:十一五期间出现的出生率短暂上扬并不能得以长期持续,家庭抚育成本的持续攀高仅会在一定程度上对社会生育意愿产生微弱的负向影响,而经济启暖带动就业市场的逐步活跃对出生率存在显著的抑制作用,使中国人口出生率再度回归80年代以来的现代人口再生产转变进程。

The birth rate is one of the most important indicators which decide the population development speed.Aiming at the phenomenon which is the birth rate raise up along with the economic starting to recover gradually warmer during 12th five-year plan,this paper selects the time series data since the implementation of reforms and the opening of doors to the inter national community,and it constructs transfer function model between the birth rate and the cost of family upbringing.This paper tries to do ex-post simulation and dynamic prediction on the reform course of the birth rate,and to identify and induce the main factors of the family upbringing cost.The results from transfer function model as follows,firstly,the temporary up raising of birth rate which is during the 11th five-year plan can’t sustain in long-term.Secondly,the sustainable upraising of the family upbringing cost has a weak negative influence on the fertility inclination in some degree.Thirdly,the gradual ac tiveness which is driven by the economic warmness suppresses the birth rate significantly,it makes the birth rate return to the transformation process of modern people reproduction since 1980.