我国对外贸易与经济增长间关系的协整研究

A cointegration research on the relationship between foreign trade and ecnomic growth in china

为适应国家经济发展的新要求,研究经济增长与对外贸易间的关系问题具有重要意义。研究表明:我国经济增长落后于对外贸易的发展;它们之间有长、短期的均衡关系,存在经济增长和出口增长是进口增长的单向格兰杰原因;出口和进口贸易对经济增长的作用不同。对外贸易政策应坚持进口与出口并重,提高进口物品的使用效率,保持对外贸易平衡是有一定积极意义的。

Accommodating the new demand of the national economy development and solving development predicament of the foreign trade,there is an important significance to make a study on the relationship between economic growth and foreign trade.It is found that the economic growth can not compare with the development of foreign trade,and there are long-term equilibrium and short-term equilibrium relationship between them,and there is also one-way granger causality from economic growth and export growth to import growth.As the import degree is concerted,export and import are different to the economic growth in long-term and short-term.The paper proposes the policy recommendations that foreign trade policy must pay equal attention to import and export,and improve the efficiency in the use of imported goods,thus keep the foreign trade balance that should be have positive significance.