中日博弈的历史考察

A Historical Perspective of Sino-Japanese Relations

中日关系既有两千多年的友好交往史,又有1894年到1945年的日本侵华史。1949年新中国成立,二战后日本走上了和平发展道路,中日关系开始了"第三个历史"。中日关系"第一个历史"是日本向先进中国学习、在实力比较上是"中强日弱"时期。然而日本作为一个狭窄多灾岛国,有着强烈的扩张生存空间意识,在唐朝和明朝,中日间发生过两次军事较量,都以日本失败而告终。这说明,只有一个既先进又强大的中国,才能使日本折服甚至追随。日本在1868年明治维新后走上了"脱亚入欧"之路,其后又走上了疯狂的对外侵略扩张的邪途。1894年甲午战争成为中日实力对比的转折点,即从"中强日弱"转变为"日强中弱"。二战后,中日关系"一强一弱"成为历史,并开始走向两千多年来从未有过的第三种状态──"强强型"关系。2010年中国的国内生产总值超过日本成为世界第二经济大国,今后10-15年,中国现代化水平将进一步提高,经济和军事实力将进一步走向强大,日本和美国将会加强合作来牵制中国。然而,从中期而言,日本将会摆脱对美国的依赖而追求某种自主性;长期而言,日本可能还是不得不与中国友好相处。当今中日关系的本质问题在于,在日本从当前追随美国转向美国某学者所称的"追随中国"的长期过程中,是否也会经过古代历史上日本终于对中国"服气"之前曾发生过的同中国之间的"战争磨合"呢?

The Sino-Japanese relations has not only enjoyed two thousand years of friendly exchanges but also suffered from the Japanese invasions of China from 1894 to 1945.The founding of New China in 1949 and the independence of Japan in 1952 has marked the beginning of the third kind of relationship between the two countries: a strong China and a strong Japan.However,as a narrow and disaster-ridden island,Japan always had a strong desire to expand its living space.During Tang Dynasty and Ming Dynasty,there had been two wars between China and Japan,both ended in the loss of Japan.It indicates that only an advanced and powerful China can convince Japan of China’s strength and its need to follow suit.After the Meiji Restoration in 1868,Japan had turned to Europe from Asia,embarking on a road of aggressions and expansions.The 1894 Sino-Japan War became a turning point for the history of the two countries.Since then,it entered a period characterized by 'a strong Japan and a weak China'.After the WWII,the 'one strong and one weak' pattern came to an end and the third kind of relationship,known as 'strong China and strong Japan',began to emerge.This is something new in the past two thousand years.In 2010,China over took Japan as the world’s second largest economy.In the next 10-15 years,as China becomes more powerful economically and militarily,Japan will strengthen its cooperation with the U.S.to contain China.In the medium term,Japan will try to put an end to its dependence on the U.S.to pursue a degree of autonomy.In the long run,Japan will have no other options but to pursue a friendly coexistence with China.Nevertheless,the key question is,will Japan still have to,as it did before,go through two military conflicts before it is fully convinced to turn away from 'following US' policy and back to 'following China' strategy again?