华东地区水稻产量与东亚季风的相关分析

Correlations between Rice Yield in East China and East-Asian Monsoon

采用连续小波变换和交叉小波变换等方法,分析了1951～2006年华东地区水稻产量和同期东亚季风的时频变化特征,探讨了相对气象产量与东亚季风环流指数之间的相关关系。结果表明,华东地区水稻产量与东亚季风环流的变化均存在年际和年代际尺度的变化周期。气象产量与同期亚洲环流经向指数以正相关为主,14年两者的正相关程度最大,少数频率尺度上呈较弱的负相关,如准2、4、6年以及18年之后。气象产量与同期亚洲环流纬向指数在2～4、6～8、10～12年尺度的共振频率上表现为正相关关系,8～10年以及12年之后的尺度上两者表现为负相关,14年左右两者的负相关程度最大。东亚季风环流的变化导致区域气候变暖,进而引起的气象灾害频发以及区域气候资源的改变,是华东地区水稻产量波动的主要原因。

Based on continuous wavelet transform and bivariate wavelet transform method,the time-frequency variation characteristics of rice yield in east China and East Asia monsoon during 1951～2006 was analyzed;the relationship between relative meteorology yield and East Asia monsoon circulation index was discussed.Results revealed the existence of inter-annual and decadal variation circle of rice yield and East Asia monsoon.Meteorological yield and meridional circulation index of contemporary Asian circulation was mostly positively correlated,especially at 14 a scale.Weak negative correlation was revealed at several time-scale such as quasi-biannual,4 a,6 a and over 18 a.Positive correlation between meteorological yield and latitudinal circulation index during rice growth period appeared at 2～4 a,6～8 a and 10～12 a;while negative correlation appeared at 8～10 a and over 12 a scale,and was the most remarkable at 14 a scale.Variation of East Asian monsoon circulation led to regional climate warming,thereby cause frequent meteorological disasters,and change regional climate resources.It was the main cause for fluctuations in rice production in East China.