基于面板数据的“土地财政”规模及其风险研究

Study on the Size and Risks of 'Land Finance' Based on Panel Data

采用理论与实证研究相结合的方法,以2002～2008年的统计数据为基础估算了全国"土地财政"的规模,并分析了其各相关组成部分占全国地方财政收入的比例。结果表明,当前的"土地财政"规模庞大,占地方财政收入的比例约为36%,隐藏着巨大的财政风险和金融风险。同时对"土地财政"所引起的社会问题进行分析,其相比于财政风险和金融风险则更为严重,国家更应该重视由"土地财政"导致的社会问题。

The theoretical and empirical research method of combining were adopted,the statistical data of 2002-2008 was used to estimate the size of Chinese ＂land finance＂ and its related component accounts for the proportion of local fiscal revenue were analyzed.Results showed that the scale of current ＇land finance＇ was enormous,which accounted for about 36% of local fiscal revenue,hid huge fiscal risk and financial risk.The social problems caused by ＇land finance＇ were analyzed,which compared to the fiscal risk and financial risk was more serious,the country should face seriously social problems caused by the land finance.