摘要
2002年我国GDP和CPI增长指数不高,但根据当年货币供应量和明显趋涨的房地产市场来看,经济"景气"其实已经来临。2012年的经济形势与十年前相似,虽然固定资产投资和货币供应量增长不快,但社会融资总额实际上迅速膨胀,房地产价格也居高不下。本文对比了2002年通货膨胀形成原因,深入分析了2012年经济下行压力和由此进行的宏观政策调整效果,提出了引发通货膨胀反弹的四大因素,即西方国家的量化宽松货币政策,我国货币供应量基础过于庞大,银行不良贷款可能带来的"倒逼机制",以及地方政府所面临的大规模负债压力。经初步判断认为,2012年下半年以来我国的货币信用已经出现膨胀趋势,应及时采取相关措施,谨防经济泡沫,防止经济大起大落。
The growth rates of China＇ s GDP as well as CPI were not high in 2002. But judging from the mon-ey supply and the buoyant real estate market of that year, the economic ＂boom＂ had in fact come. The situation in 2012 was quite similar. Although the fixed assets investment and money supply did not grow swiftly, the aggregated social financing expanded tremendously and the housing prices roared up. This paper compares the causes of infla- tion in 2002 and 2012, analyzes the downward pressure of economy in 2012 and the effect of c policy adjustments, and illustrates four factors that could trigger the rebound of inflation, i.e., the quantitative easing mo- netary polices of the advanced economies, China＇ s enormous base of money supply, the pressure from banks＇ non-performing loans, and the massive liabilities of local governments. Preliminary judgment could be made that since the second half of 2012, China＇ s credit has been excessively expanding; measures should be taken to avoid eco-nomic bubble and instability.
出处
《金融监管研究》
2013年第2期9-21,共13页
Financial Regulation Research
