利率市场化的推进步骤与风险防范的政策安排——基于印度的案例分析

Procedures of Interest Rate Marketization and Policy Arrangements for Risk Management——Based on a Case Study of India

我国的利率市场化改革历经十余年,已经到了关键阶段。本文简要梳理了利率市场化改革的理论基础,从金融监管、金融改革顺序、金融基础设施和宏观经济环境四个维度构建了利率市场化改革风险防范的政策框架。在此基础上,本文分析了印度利率市场化改革背景、步骤、效果以及风险控制,为前面的理论分析提供了例证。最后,通过对比中、印两国利率市场化改革的背景和步骤,总结归纳了印度利率市场化对我国的启示,主要包括加强银行监管和风险管理、塑造良好制度环境和合理安排改革顺序等方面。

After more than ten years＇ efforts, China＇ s interest rate marketization reform has reached a key stage. This paper briefly surveys the theories of interest rate marketization, and develops a policy framework of risk management that involves four aspects, i. e., financial regulation, sequence of the financial reform, financial infra-structure, and the macro economic environment. It applies this framework to India＇ s interest rate marketization as a case study by analyzing its background, procedures, outcome and risk control. Comparing the background and procedures of interest rate marketization of China and India, this paper proposes several policy suggestions for Chi-na＇ s interest rate marketization, including strengthening financial regulation and risk management, improving insti-tutional environment, and optimizing the order of the reform.