金融脆弱性视角下的两次大危机比较研究--基于BLISHER框架

A Comparative Analysis of the Two Major Crises from the Perspective of Financial Fragility——Based on the BLISHER Framework

金融脆弱性是导致大萧条和此次大危机的重要因素。本文基于BLISHER框架,从金融脆弱性入手,对两次大危机爆发进行了比较研究。研究结果表明,BLISHER框架的七大因素在两次大危机爆发前都发生了增加金融体系脆弱性的显著变化,可以较好地解释两次大危机;同时,BLISHER框架中的七大因素在危机爆发前的变化并不是孤立的,各要素之间存在复杂的相互强化机制。这种相互强化效应加剧了金融体系的脆弱性。

Financial fragility is an important factor that has caused the Great Depression and the current crisis. Based on the BLISHER framework, this paper compares the two major crises from the perspective of financial fragility. The results show that, all of the seven factors in the BLISHER framework have gone through significant changes that increase the fragility of the financial system before the two crises. This provides an explanation of these crises. In addition, the changes of the seven factors in the BLISHER framework are not independent and reinforce each other as a complicated amplifying mechanism before the two crises. This reinforcing effect exacerbates the fragility of the financial system.