我国财政支出调控效果的实证分析——基于财政政策与货币政策综合分析的视角

An Empirical Analysis of the Effects on Regulation Effect of the Fiscal Expenditure in China:Based on the Comprehensive Analysis of the Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy

本文在综合考虑货币供应量和价格因素的基础上,利用1996～2012年季度数据,通过构建结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型对我国财政支出的调控效果进行实证分析,得出了以下几点主要结论:一是货币政策变量和价格因素对财政政策的实证分析具有重要作用,是财政政策分析中不可忽视的变量,否则,容易产生分析偏差甚至得出相反的结论;二是财政支出不仅对经济增长具有调控作用,对通货膨胀的调控也具有一定作用,从一个侧面支持了价格水平决定的财政理论(FTPL);三是财政支出对私人支出具有部分挤出效应,从本文的实证结果看,财政支出增长率的提高,在提高产出总体增长率的同时,也会导致私人支出增长率的降低。

On the basis of introducing monetary supply and price factors, this paper constructs a SVAR model to analyze the economic effects of China＇s fiscal expenditure, and gets the following conclusions： firstly, monetary policy variables and price factors are very important to analyze the effect ion of fiscal policy; otherwise, we＇ll get wrong conclusions if ignoring these variables. Secondly, fiscal expenditure plays an important part not only in the control of economic growth, but also in the control of inflation, sustaining FI＇PL from another perspective. Thirdly, fiscal expenditure crowds out private expenditure partly.