经济增长与我国通货膨胀容忍度——来自企业层面的经验证据

Economic Growth and Inflation Tolerance:Evidence from Firm Level Data

近年来,我国通货膨胀目标控制线屡被突破,由此所引发的问题是:我国通货膨胀目标是否合理,是否有必要提高对通胀的容忍度?本文从公司层面,应用面板平滑转换模型研究发现,我国的经济增长率与通货膨胀率之间存在显著的非线性关系,在1%显著性水平下,当通货膨胀率小于约2.3%时,通货膨胀对投资进而对经济增长并未产生明显作用;而当通货膨胀大于约5.0%时,通货膨胀则会对投资进而对经济增长产生显著的负面影响。上述两种机制的状态转换发生在通货膨胀率为3.8%的位置,并且两种机制间的转换速度非常快。这意味着,当通货膨胀率接近或超过阈值3.8%时,央行应迅速对通货膨胀采取行动。

Since the control line of China＇s inflation target has often been broken through in recent years. It is reasonable to consider that whether China＇s inflation target is appropriate, and whether it is necessary to increase China＇s inflation tolerance. This paper investigates above questions using the panel smooth transition model. The firm level evidence shows that there exists significant nonliear relationship between economic growth and the inflation in China. When the inflation rate is less than about 2. 3% , the inflation has no siginficant in- fluence on firm investment behavior and economic growth at 1% significance level. But when the inflation rate is larger than about 5.0% , the inflation will significantly negatively influence investment and economic growth. The above two regimes transition occurs when the inflation rate is about 3.8%. Further, the transition speed is very high which means that when the inflation rate is near to 3.8%, the central bank should swiftly take action against inflation.