新世纪泰国经济形势展望

The Forecast to Economic Situation of Thailand in the New Century

目前 ,泰国经济经历金融危机的洗劫后 ,呈现恢复态势。一部分专家、学者、政府官员认为泰国经济已经摆脱了危机的阴影 ,走上了正常的增长轨道。但笔者认为 :泰国并没有走上实质性的恢复道路 ,其金融危机本质是一场发展危机。目前 ,泰国经济只是出现了一定程度的复苏 ,如要恢复到金融危机前的增长 ,则还有一段很长的路要走。由于泰国经济本身仍存在严重隐忧 ,再加上发展中国家发展经济盲目追求高速度的弊病难以消除 ,如不能妥善处理好各种经济问题 ,泰国的经济发展前景将会比两年前预期的要差 。

Nowdays, the economy of Thailand appears a little recovery tendency through impact of the financial crisis. Some experts, scholars and officials think that the economy of Thailand has already got away from shadow of the crisis and go on the natural increase way. But penman think Thailand hasn't gone on the virtual recovery way, The financial crisis is a developmental crisis in nature. The economy of Thailand emergences a certain extent recovery only, if the economy need renew the increase before the financial crisis, Thailand will still go a long way. Because the economy of Thailand exists severe hidden troubles, supperadd the developing countries can't avoid the evils which pursue high speed when they develop economy, If Thailand can't deal with various economic problems properly, the foreground of economy will be worse than that forecasted two years ago, moreover, it is difficult for Thailand to avoid the next crisis.