基于离散灰色DGM(1,1)模型的房地产价格预测及其对策研究

A Study on Real Estate Price Forecasting and its Countermeasures Based on the Discrete Gray DGM(1,1) Model

本文首先用定性预测方法分析了房地产价格的主要影响因素,接着针对该问题的灰色不确定性,在对传统灰色预测DGM(1,1)模型的改进形式和离散型灰色预测DGM(1,1)模型系统研究的基础上,提出了一种新的DGM(1,1)模型,对某地区房地产价格(2005—2008年)进行了预测的实证分析和基于Matlab程序的仿真计算,证明其可靠性和有效性,并就房地产价格的预测结果,提出了相应的对策建议。研究结果表明:本文所建立的DGM(1,1)模型可作为灰色预测理论的一种精确预测模型,其为房地产价格的市场预测提供了一种新的定量预测方法,对当前房地产市场的理性发展具有重要的指导意义和借鉴价值。

This paper firstly analyzes the main impact factors of real estate price with qualitative prediction method.Then the author makes an empirical prediction analysis and MATLAB-based simulation calculation of a regional real estate prices（in 2005-2008）with a new DGM（1,1）model based on the changing prediction model of traditional gray DGM（1,1）and discrete system of gray forecasting model of DGM（1,1）.The paper proves the reliability and validity of new DGM（1,1）model and provides the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions of prediction result of real estate prices.This paper shows that the model DGM（1,1）of can be used as a kind of gray prediction theory model to predict accurately the price of its real estate market and provide a new quantitative forecasting methods.It has important guiding significance and reference value to the rational development of the current real estate market.