基于相关系数和标准差的专家权重确定及其灵敏度分析

Determining Expert Weights and Its Sensitivity Analysis Based on the Correlation Coefficient and the Standard Deviations

针对方案属性值为实数的多属性群决策问题,首先利用单个专家对一组方案进行评价所得评价值的标准差和其评价值与其他每个专家评价值的相关系数,提出了一种客观的确定专家权重的方法;其次,对基于OWA算子和WA算子的多属性群决策方法进行了灵敏度分析,研究了专家权重的变化范围,使群体给出的方案排序或最优方案保持不变;最后,通过空调系统选择实例说明了所提方法的合理性并进行了相关分析.

For the multiple attribute group decision-making problems in which attribute values of alternatives are real numbers, this paper firstly proposes a method to determine expert weights objectively by using the standard deviations of evaluation values given by the single expert to the alternatives and the correlation coefficient between the evaluation values and the evaluation values given by other experts;Secondly, this paper does the sensitivity anal- ysis to the multiple attribute group decision-making method based on OWA and WA operators and studies the range of expert weights to make the alternatives ranking or the optimum alternative given by the group remaining the same;Last,this paper chooses an air-condition system selection problem to show the effectiveness of the proposed methods and does the related analysis.