旧证据问题的反事实概率分析

From the Analysis of the Counterfactual Probability to the Problem of Old Evidence

旧证据问题表明,旧证据在贝叶斯主义框架内不能确证任何理论或假说。这使得贝叶斯主义的合理性遭到了质疑。贝叶斯主义者对旧证据问题提供了多种可能解法。反事实概率的引入讨论便是其中一种。豪森Colin Howson认为反事实概率具备有效性,并且存在评估反事实概率的一般法则,最终提出了一个贝叶斯式的旧证据解决方案。

The problem of old evidence shows that theories and hypotheses aren＇ t confirmed in the field of Bayesian reasoning. This makes the rationality of Bayesian is in question. Many solutions to the problem of old evidence are proposed by Bayesian. One of the solutions is the analysis of counterfactual probability. From the view of Howson, the counterfactual probability is provided with validity. The computing method and the Bayesian approach of the counterfactual probability are come up.