人口变动在大城市碳排放中的作用与影响——以北京市为例

Analysis of the Impact of Demographic Factors on Carbon Emission in Beijing

碳排放是表征一个国家或地区环境状况的重要指标,与经济发展、技术和人口等都有着密切的联系。本文采用了基于环境压力等式IPAT的STIRPAT模型来定量分析北京市人口因素及其他相关因素对北京市碳排放的影响。研究结果显示,北京市的经济水平、城镇人口规模、就业结构、城镇化率和年龄因素对北京市的碳排放具有正效应,即随着上述因素的增大,碳排放也呈现增加趋势,而碳排放强度(技术因素)与碳排放呈现反相关关系。从1980-2010年的上述各类因素的变化以及对碳排放的影响程度上看,经济水平的提高对碳排放的贡献最大,人口规模的增加对碳排放的贡献紧随其后,产业结构升级和城镇化提高都对碳排放产生了明显的促进作用。

Carbon emission is an important index which could express the environmental condition in a country or region. It has close relationship with economic development, technology and Demography. This paper analyzed the impact of demographic and other related factors on the carbon emission in Beijing based on the Environmental pressure equation of STIRPAT model. The results showed that factors of economic level, population, employment structure, urbanization rate and age have positive effects on carbon emission, while the Carbon intensity （Technology factor） showed inverse correlation with carbon emission.