产学研技术联盟稳定性的系统动力学建模与仿真

Modeling and Simulation of Industry-University-Research Technical Alliance Stability Using System Dynamics

从系统动力学视角提出产学研技术联盟稳定性的基本分析框架,结合联盟稳定性的反馈特征,从匹配性、互动性和共赢性三方面分析了物质流、信息流和能量流的因果关系,建立产学研技术联盟稳定性的系统流图和系统动力学模型,应用Vensim PLE对模型进行仿真模拟,验证了模型的有效性与应用价值。结果表明,声誉、合作经验、资源和规模禀赋等外部变量对联盟稳定性的影响较弱,而信任、投机行为、利益分配合理度等内部变量会导致联盟稳定性的较大波动。

From a system dynamics perspective, the basic analysis frame of industry-university-research technical al- liance stability is studied. By feedback of industry-university-research technical alliance stability, the causal loop di- agrams of material, information and energy are analyzed from three aspects of matching, interactivity and all-win Futhermore, a flow chart and system dynamics model are established. Vensim PLE is used to simulate and to test the validation and application value of model. The simulation results show that extemal variables, such as reputa- tion, cooperation experience, resources and scale endowment etc. with weak impacts, while internal variables of trust, speculation, reasonable interest distribution can lead to great module fluctuations