摘要
根据中国和欧盟的季度GDP增长率序列,文章计算了各种不同时窗长度下二者的滚动相关系数,发现我国与欧盟的经济周期波动在21世纪后表现出持续显著的同步性特征。并且,通过出口函数的测算,得出欧盟经济增长拉动了我国向欧盟的出口,从而对我国经济增长具有显著的影响。在当前欧盟经济增速放缓的影响下,我国经济增速出现同步下滑,我国应该继续运用积极的经济政策拉动内需,并积极扩展对外贸易,以实现我国经济平稳健康地增长。
This paper calculates the rolling correlation coefficients of the Chinese and EU seasonal GDP growth rates under different window lengths. It finds that the business cycle synchronization between EU and China has been positive ever since 2000. The calculation of the export function indicates that the economic growth of EU will affect the export from China to EU, which leads to the significant pulling effect for China. As a result of the negative shock of the EU economic growth rate slowdown, the GDP growth rate of China also goes down. So, China is suggested to continue its expansionary economic policies and pull its domestic demand and foreign trade so as to keep its economy stable and healthy.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第4期27-34,共8页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社科基金重大招标项目(10zd&010)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC790091)
关键词
经济周期波动
同步性
贡献度
business cycle
synchronization
contribution degree