系统动力学在旅游学科中应用的研究进展

The Progress and Revelation on the Application of System Dynamics in Tourism

对国内外系统动力学在旅游学科中应用的文献进行梳理,分析其研究的特点与差别,提出国内未来研究的新领域和新思路,推进国内系统动力学在旅游学科中的应用.从文献刊载时间上看,国外的研究比国内早8年,但文献数量仅为国内的二分之一.作者研究成果方面,国外代表性学者为澳大利亚昆士兰大学的Karin Schianetz,主要研究领域为学习型旅游目的地;国内代表性学者为徐红罡,研究领域涉及旅游系统的各个方面.研究内容方面,国外对于海岛型旅游目的研究案例较多,早期关注系统动力学在旅游地自然环境政策决策中的作用,近期聚焦系统动力学在旅游地可持续发展中的作用,并形成了研究的主流;国内研究的领域较为广泛,重点关注系统动力学在旅游经济子系统的应用,尚未形成了鲜明的研究领域和方向.未来,国内学者应加强系统动力学在旅游地环境决策、旅游地可持续发展及学习型旅游目的地等方面研究,充分发挥系统动力学"战略实验室"的特长,适时选择高版本软件构建完善的模型,并重视状态变量选择的科学性和严谨性.

This paper sorted out information from time, information of authors and research content, analyzed the char- acteristics and differences between domestic and foreign research, and proposed new areas and ideas in domestic future research in order to promote the system dynamics to be applied to the domestic tourism discipline. In terms of the time, though the first researched paper abroad was printed in 1993a, eight years earlier than domestic, the amount of papers was only half of domestic ones. In terms of authors＇ information, the foreign representative scholars, the University of Queensland, Australia, Karin Sehianetz focused on learning tourism destination. The domestic representative scholar was Xu Honggang, whose research areas involved all aspects of the tourism system. In terms of research content, there were more foreign case studies on the island tourist destination abroad than those in domestic. Therefore, in the early days, the foreign scholars were concerned about the application of SD in the policy decision-making of natural environment, but lately have focused on the role of SD in the sustainable development. However, the domestic scholars care more about the application of SD in the economic subsystem, but have not formed a distinct direction yet. In the next step, the domes- tic scholars should strengthen the special study of system dynamics on tourism environmental decision-making, sustain- able development and learning type tourism destination, give full play to system dynamics with the function of ＂strategy laboratories＂, select the high version of the software to build a sound model in a timely manner, and pay more attention to the importance of the science and rigor of the state variables selecting.