中国城市化进程与碳排放量关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Urbanization and Carbon Emission in China

本研究利用1978-2009年间的统计数据进行协整分析与格兰杰因果检验,考察了中国城市化水平与碳排放量之间的关系。研究结果表明:①城市化率与碳排放之间在长期存在驱动关系,城市化率的提高将引起碳排放量的增加,当城市化率每提高1%,碳排放量以1.61%的比率增加;②将高城市化率作为中国现代化标志,从而"大跃进"式地进行城市化运动将造成我国碳排放总量随城市化率的逐年提高而急剧增加,将有悖于建设低碳城市的目标和阻碍可持续发展战略的实施;③碳排放量除受到当期城市化率水平的影响,还受到来自前期城市化率水平的累积影响,即前期城市化率水平体现了城市化进程,而城市化进程的加快势必引起能源消耗的增加。从目前中国以煤炭为主要能源结构的情况来判断,能源消耗的增加又与碳排放密切相关,前期城市化率对当期碳排放量水平的影响通过能源消耗的惯性体现出来。从而认为,若继续盲目地把高城市化率作为衡量一国现代化水平,将大幅度增加温室气体排放,对未来中国碳排放总量控制造成不利影响。中国需要谋求低碳城市化发展之路。

In this study, based on the data from 1978 to 2009, the relationship between urbanization rate and carbon emission is analyzed by employing co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. It shows： （1）there is a driving relationship between urbanization rate and carbon emission in long run, and the rise of urbanization rate will cause an increase in carbon emission. Every 1% increase in urbanization rate will cause 1.61% increase in carbon emission. （2）If considering high urbanization rate as the sign of modernization in China, to push on urbanization movement in ＂the great leap forward＂ style will cause a sharp increase in carbon emission following the increased urbanization rate year by year, and it goes against our goal to achieve low-carbon cities and sustainable development. （3）Except influenced by the current urbanization level, carbon emission is also cumulatively affected by previous urbanization level, namely the previous urbanization level reflects the process of urbanization, and rapid urbanization certainly causes an increase in energy consumption. As coal is the primary source for energy using currently in China, the increase in energy consumption is closely connected with carbon emission. The effect of previous urbanization rate on current carbon emission level is shown by inertia of energy consumption. Therefore, it is considered if continuing tomeasure a nation＇ s modernization level by its urbanization rate, there will be a great increase in green house gas emission, which has an advers impact on the volume control of carbon emission in the future. China needs to achieve low-carbon urbanization.