国际贸易对污染-收入关系的影响研究——基于跨国家SO_2排放的面板数据分析

Impact Analysis of International Trade on Pollution Income Relationship: Based on SO_2 Emissions Cross-country Panel Data

描述污染排放与经济收入之间关系的EKC曲线一直是学术界讨论的重点。现有研究多分析国内生产污染排放与收入之间的关系,较少探讨不同国家之间通过国际贸易而产生的隐性污染转移对这一关系的影响。本文从国际贸易的视角出发,依据"谁消费、谁负责"的基本理念,重新构建了基于消费的各国污染排放与收入之间的关系,并与传统的基于生产的污染-收入关系进行比较。基于29个代表性国家SO2排放与收入的面板数据实证研究结果表明:1970-2000年间,发达国家、新兴工业化国家通过国际贸易向外转出污染,促使EKC曲线拐点提前到达,其中发达国家由基于生产的7 775美元右移至基于消费的11 060美元,新兴工业化国家则由5 717美元右移至6 841美元;而发展中国家在两种情况下的污染排放仍不断上升,尚未出现转折。对于中国而言,由于对外贸易增加了国内污染排放,因此在大力开展现有污染减排工作的同时,应重视贸易中隐含的污染转移排放以降低其对国内环境的影响。

As a description of the relationship between pollution and income, EKC curve has always been a key point of academic discussion. The existing researches mostly focus on the national internal production-based pollution emissions, ignoring the influence of embodied emissions in trade on the pollution income relationship. From the perspective of international trade, according to the ＇consumer pays principle＇ , we established a consumption-based pollution-income relationship test model and compared it with the traditional production-based model. The empirical study of SO2 emissions based on panel data of 29 representative nations showed that from 1970 to 2000, developed countries and newly industrialized countries transfered pollution outside through international trade, and as a result, the turning point of production-based EKC emerges before that of consumption-based EKC. For developed countries, the turning points for production-based EKC and consumption-based EKC were $ 7 775 and $ 11 060, respectively; for newly industrialized countries, the turning points were $ 5 717 and $ developing countries kept rising, without any turning down point. 6 841, respectively. However, in both models, the emissions of As for China, since the foreign trade increased domestic pollution emissions, in the current vigorous pollution reduction process, government should pay attention to the embodied emissions in international trade and minimize its impact on domestic environment.