重大水利工程社会稳定风险研究

Study on the Social Stability Risk of Large Hydraulic Project

社会系统脆弱性是社会系统稳定风险敏感性的条件,社会系统越脆弱,社会稳定风险就越大。本文从重大水利工程建设的社会风险暴露、社会敏感性和社会应对能力三个维度对重大水利工程建设地区的社会脆弱性成因进行分析。并依据社会系统稳定对重大水利工程建设的响应,构建了重大水利工程社会系统脆弱性评价模型和评价指标体系,将"三峡工程建设———万州地区"作为实证分析对象。结果表明:1999-2011年万州社会系统脆弱性呈现"倒U型"变化趋势,其中万州社会系统风险呈现"增—减—增"的变化、社会系统应对能力不断提升,表明万州社会系统脆弱性的下降不是来自其社会系统风险的下降,而是来自万州社会系统应对能力的提高;万州社会系统应对能力提升主要依靠经济发展、社会保障和社会舆情等因素的改善。因此,建议将社会系统能力建设纳入社会稳定评估范围、加大社会保障体系建设、采取措施推动建设地区经济发展、引入公众参与机制提高群众满意度等,防范和化解重大水利工程社会系统脆弱化和社会稳定风险。

Social vulnerability is an important factor determining the sensitivity of social system. The vulnerable social system would give rise to great risk to social stability. In this paper, the contributing factors of social vulnerability in large hydraulic project constructions are analyzed from three dimensions that are social risk exposure, social sensitivity and social adaptability capability. Subsequently, both the assessment model and indices system to the vulnerability of social system in large hydraulic project constructions are established according to the response of social stability to those large hydraulic project constructions. At last, Wanzhou which is a typical area in Three Gorges projection construction is selected as an example for analysis. It is concluded that the vulnerability of social system in Wanzhou during the period of 1999 to 2009 has a trend of inverted u shaped. Since the risk of social system is showed to be ＇ increase-decrease-increase＇ and social adaptability capability keeps increasing, the decrease of social is the result of the enhancement of social adaptability capability rather than the decrease of social risk. Additionally, the enhancement of social adaptability capability mainly relies on the economic development and the improvement of social security and public opinion, etc. Therefore, the construction of social system ability is suggested to bring into the assessment of social stability. Besides, the enlargement of social security construction, the development of regional economics and the encouragement of participation in order to improve people satisfaction are also advised to carry out to decrease the vulnerability and the stability risk of social system.