碳排放与城市化关系的实证

Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Urbanization

气候变化已经成为全球关注的焦点问题,其已经和正在产生的影响严重威胁着自然界和人类的安全。碳排放已成为全球增温的主要因素,作为全球碳排放的主要源头,城市遂成为全球增温的首要选择。本文论述了气候变化、碳排放与城市化的关系,对全球气候变化条件下我国碳排放与城市化的关系进行实证分析。研究表明,我国城市化水平与碳排放量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。改革开放以来,城市化水平对碳排放量的弹性系数为1.643,即城市化水平每增长1%,碳排放量将相应地增长1.643%。格兰杰因果检验表明,城市化是碳排放持续增长的Granger原因,而碳排放却不是城市化水平提升的Granger原因。为应对气候变化,城市的类型和特征要与其低碳发展模式的选择相结合,通过普及先进的低碳技术,优化产业结构,将低碳生态发展之路作为节能减排主要途径。

Climate change has become the focus of global environmental concern, its impact has been and is posing a serious threat to the natural world and human security. Carbon emission is a major factor causing climate warming. As a major source of global carbon emissions, cities became the first choice to mitigate global climate warming. This paper focuses on the relationship among climate change, carbon emissions and urbanization, and analyzes the relationship between urbanization rate and amounts of carbon emissions under the influence of global climate change. The results indicate that there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between them, the elastic coefficient of the China＇ s urbanization rate and amounts of carbon emissions is 1. 643, it was deduced that the amounts of carbon emissions increased by 1. 643% when urbanization rate increased by 1%. Granger causality shows that urbanization is carbon emissions Granger causality, but carbon emissions are not urbanization Granger causality. For addressing climate change, we consider that all types of cities must select an appropriate low-carbon development model on the basis of their features, promote advanced lowcarbon technologies, optimize the industrial structure, and actively develop a low-carbon ecological path for carbon emissions.