重大工程项目社会稳定风险评估研究——基于社会预期的视角

A Study on Social Risk Assessment of Major Projects:from the Perspective of Social Expectation

风险社会改变了重大工程项目的评价标准,也改变了项目决策的议程设置。重大工程项目日益成为诱发群体性事件等社会不稳定因素的风险源,其风险因素来自于相关利益群体对该项目在利益性、安全性和合法性上的社会预期,这种社会预期直接引发了其与社会稳定相关的行为或行为倾向。将社会预期分析纳入社会稳定风险评估框架,有利于全面客观地反映项目实施所产生的社会效果,进而更为合理有效地预防各类社会冲突事件的发生。

Risk society has changed the evaluation criterion of major projects and the agenda setting of decision-mak- ing, Major projects are becoming risk sources to social instability, which have triggered many mass incidents. Social stability risks of major projects are related to the social expectation of stakeholders, which includes three forms ： bene- fit expectation, security expectation and legitimacy expectation. All of them lead to social instability behavior or be- havioral tendencies directly. Encompassing the social expectation into the framework of social risk assessment, the so- cial effects can be observed objectively and comprehensively, and then the social conflicts can be prevented effectively.