我国货币供应与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Money Supply and Economic Growth about China

文章对货币供应与经济增长关系的理论和文献进行了回顾。在我国1978-2010年的GDP和M2年度序列数据的基础上,通过对数据进行平稳性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,并建立误差修正模型。文章结论:经济增长率和货币供给增长率是平稳的;lnM2与lnGDP之间存在长期均衡的关系;货币供给变动是经济变动的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立。这表明,在我国,货币是非中性的。

This article reviews the theories and literatures on the relationship of monetary supply and economic growth.Basing on China＇s annual sequence datum of GDP and M2 from 1978 to 2010,the author makes stationary test,co-integration test and Granger causality test,and builds the Error Correction Model（ECM）.Then the author finds that growth rate of economy and monetary supply is stable;the long-run equilibrium relationship exists between lnM2 and lnGDP;changes in the monetary supply is the Granger cause of the economic changes,and the contrary is not true.These suggest that money is not neutral in our country.