基于EKC模型的河南省工业化、城镇化水平与耕地面积关系研究

Study on the Relation of Industrialization,Urbanization and Cultivated Land Area in He′nan Province Based on the EKC Model

作为粮食大省,河南省担负着国家粮食安全的重任,在工业化、城镇化加速背景下,构建河南省耕地面积变化规律模型,预测未来耕地保护的压力,可以提升耕地保护的动力,为保障国家粮食安全和促进地方经济发展做出贡献。基于文献资料,构建了河南省耕地面积三次环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,运用Eviews软件进行模型拟合,验证工业化、城镇化和耕地面积的关系。数据支持城镇人口比重和耕地面积的显性三次环境库兹涅茨曲线相关关系。从而有如下结论:河南省城镇人口比重在19.350%～32.149%之间,城镇化水平提高,耕地面积增加。城镇人口比重超过32.149%,河南省耕地面积伴随城镇化水平的提高逐渐减少,减少速度快,未来耕地保护压力很大。通过理顺土地整治的投资收益机制可以释放部分压力。同时,类似于人地挂钩政策等制度创新也可使"倒U型"曲线上移,进一步缓解耕地减少的趋势。做好上述两方面,耕地减少在一段时间内甚至可以得到控制,最终达到保护耕地的目的。

As the province producing grain, He＇ nan takes the responsibility of state food security. In the back- ground of acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, it is very important to develop He＇nan cultivated area change rule model to predict the pressure of cultivated land protection, promote the power of the culti- vated land protection, ensure national food security and promote local economic development to contribute. Based on the literature, cubic environmental kuznets curve model of He＇nan province is constructed, fitted and predicted through Eviews software in order to analyze the relationship between industrialization, the ur- banization and the cultivated land area. Data support the three dominant environmental kuznets curve corre- lation of proportion of urban population and cultivated land area. Therefore, the results show that the pro- portion of urban population of He＇nan province ranges frim 19. 350% to 32. 149%, as the level of urbaniza- tion, the cultivated land area in He＇nan province is improved. These periods are 1997--2006. Then propor- tion of the urban population is more than 32. 149~, cultivated land area in He＇nan province reduces with the level of gradual urbanization. Cultivated land protection will be under a lot of pressure in the future. The ra- tionalization of land renovation investment income mechanism can release pressure in part. At the same time, it is similar to the people to link up with policy that kind of system innovation can also make ＇inverted U＇ type curve up. Reduction of cultivated land can be controlled completely within a period of time.