中国家禽出口贸易影响因素与发展潜力——基于引力模型的分析

Analysis of the Influencing Factors and Potential of China’s Poultry Export Trade Based on Gravity Model

基于1992-2010年中国与24个家禽进口国的面板数据,建立引力模型对中国家禽出口贸易影响因素及发展潜力进行分析。研究结果表明:中国畜牧业总产值、进口国经济规模、贸易双方人均收入差距、有共同边界和同为APEC成员国对中国家禽出口具有显著的正向影响;空间距离和WTO制度安排则是阻碍家禽出口的主要因素。中国家禽对澳门、新加坡、韩国、荷兰、法国、匈牙利、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯等国家还存在巨大出口潜力。

This paper analyzes the influencing factors and potential of China＇s poultry export trade based on gravity model. The results show that Chings total value of husbandry product, importing country ＂s economic scale, absolute difference of per capita income, common border and APEC trade mechanism have a great positive effect on China＇s poultry exports, whereas spatial distance and WTO system are the main negative factors in poultry export growth. China＇s poultry export has great potential in markets like Macao, Singapore, South Korea, the Netherlands, France, Hungary, Australia, Russia, UAE and Saudi Arabia.