摘要
从地震丛集的大量实例出发 ,讨论了地震丛集与断裂间相互作用的特点、基本规律、机理问题及对地震预测的意义 ,在此基础上对祁连山断裂带东段的地震危险性进行了定性分析 ,认为 1 92 7年古浪 8.0级地震的发生对此区断裂的地震潜势产生深刻影响 .它可能暗示 :此区内的未来大震与 1 92 7年古浪地震分属两个地震丛集期 ;古浪地震的发生使得作为危险段落的金强河 毛毛山断裂上的挤压应力显著增大 ,从而延迟了未来大震的发震时间 .
Proceeding from actual clustering of earthquakes,the primary characteristics, regularities and mechanism of earthquake clustering and fault interactions as well as their implication to earthquake prediction are discussed. Then the seismic hazard in the east Qilian Mountains is analyzed qualitatively. The occurrence of 1927 Gulang M S 8.0 earthquake deeply affects to the potential of future earthquakes on the faults in this region. It implies that: ① future great earthquakes in the region will probably not occur until next earthquake clustering; ② the occurrence of the Gulang earthquake increases the compressive stress on the Jinqianghe Maomaoshan fault zone which was believed to be most dangerous, thereby postponing the occurrence of the supposed great earthquake.
出处
《西北地震学报》
CSCD
2000年第2期126-133,共8页
Northwestern Seismological Journal
基金
地震科学联合基金项目!(1980 2 6 )
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目!(95 13 0 1 0 4)
关键词
祁连山
断裂带
地震危险性评估
地震丛集
Qilian Mountains
Fracture zone
Seismic risk evaluation
earthquake clustering
