河北省气候变化对AO因子的响应探讨

Reponse of climate change to Arctic Oscillation in Hebei Province

利用河北省72个气象台站1961-2010年逐月气温数据,选择Mann-Kendall突变趋势检验、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Sen’s坡度估计、一元方差分析等方法判断了河北省气温变化的趋势和突变时间,分析了气温变化的区域和季节特征,并探讨了气温变化特征与北极涛动、经纬度及海拔高度等影响因子的关系。结果表明:(1)河北省整体气温显著上升,年均温平均增幅0.30℃/10 a,四季增温幅度冬>春>秋>夏;坝上高原和冀西北间山盆地区增温幅度较大;(2)河北省增温突变集中在1986-1994年;冬季和春季增温突变较显著;年均温增温突变时间北部早于南部;(3)CO2排放量持续增加、1995年之前AO指数的增强可能是河北省近50 a增温的主要原因;高纬度、高经度、高海拔、盆地以及无森林和湿地调节的地区增温显著,这些因素对区域增温具有放大作用,是影响河北省气候变化对AO响应程度的重要因素。

In recent decades,continuous attention to global warming has been paid by researchers of all over the world.The temperature in China rose significantly,and also the rising trend had regional and seasonal differences,except that a few special areas showed cooling trend.Hebei Province locates in North China area with varied landforms,and the terrain in the northwest is higher than the southeast.The temperature rose significantly in Hebei Province,which responded strongly to global warming.This paper analyzed the regional and seasonal features of temperature variation trend and the time of abrupt temperature change in Hebei province in recent 50 years.On the basis of this analysis,the paper gave a discussion about the effect of CO2emission,AO（Arctic Oscillation）and other factors on the temperature change features in Hebei,this would offer a certain reference for further study of long-term temperature change in Hebei province.The data used in this paper include monthly temperature records that collected at 72 typical meteorological stations in Hebei Province,CO2emission in China and AO indices.Monthly temperature records in Hebei province were derived from Hebei Province Bureau,CO2 emission in China and the AO indices originated from World Meteorological Organization and Climate Prediction Center of NOAA（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）,respectively.The time span of CO2 emission data is 1961-2007,the others are all from 1961 to 2010.Firstly,the paper judged the time series of temperature whether had rising trend or declining trend existed or not by using the means of Mann-Kendall trend analysis,then calculating the change value by the means of Sen’s slope estimates if the temperature changed significantly.The jump time of temperature change was detected by Mann-Kendall jump test,Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics and moving t-test,and determined the accurate jump time of temperature change combined with curves of 5-year moving average and accumulative anomaly.Besides,one-way ANOVA was used to analyze the regional differences of temperature change of Hebei province.And the relationships between temperature change and influencing factors that include CO2 emission,AO indices,latitude,longitude,altitude were investigated by using correlation analysis and regression analysis.One-way ANOVA,correlation analysis and regression analysis were carried out with SPSS for Windows 17.0,and α =0.05 was taken for the significant level.The results showed as follows：（1）the annual average variation trend of temperature was 0.30 ℃/10 a,and the sequence of seasonal warming magnitude was as follows：winterspring autumnsummer;the warming trend in winter was significantly higher than the other seasons;the warming magnitude of the Bashang plateau and the basin of Northwest Hebei mountains were much higher than other regions.（2）The jump time of temperature change in Hebei concentrated in 1986-1994;Abrupt Temperature Change in winter and spring were significantly;and the jump time of temperature change in north was earlier than south in Hebei.（3）Continuous increase of CO2 emission and enhanced Arctic Oscillation before 1995 are the main causes of recent 50 years warming in Hebei;temperature increased distinctly in the area of high latitude,high longitude,high altitude,basin,no forest and wetland,these factors caused different responses of climate change to AO.