经济增长和技术进步对吉林省能源足迹的影响分析

Impacts of economic growth and technological progress on energy eco footprint in Jilin Province

基于IPAT等式和LMDI法,分别建立了能源足迹的驱动模型和分解模型,分析了吉林省1994-2010年经济因素和技术因素对人均能源足迹的影响特征和程度,绘制了人均能源足迹随人均GDP和能源足迹强度非等比例变化的三维曲面图。结果表明:在过去17 a中,以人均GDP为标志的经济增长是吉林省人均能源足迹增长的主要驱动因素,其年均贡献值为0.054 hm2;以能源足迹强度为标志的技术进步则是抑制人均能源足迹增长的重要因素,其年均贡献值为-0.027 hm2。总体上,经济因素对人均能源足迹的影响程度约为技术因素的2倍,且这种差距在近年来不断扩大,致使人均能源足迹呈增长趋势,能源消费对生态环境的压力显著增大。未来一段时期内,抑制吉林省能源足迹增长的重点在于技术进步。此外,在双变量人均GDP和能源足迹强度的不规则分布格局下,人均能源足迹将呈现复合曲面变化;最后结合吉林省的具体特点提出了提高技术水平、抑制能源足迹增速的措施建议。

The accelerating expansion in energy consumption is creating serious environmental problems on both global and regional scales,which forces people to re-examine the conflicting relationship among environmental protection,economic growth and technological progress.In this case,scientific analysis of energy consumption is of great importance for energy strategy and policy planning.The management of energy use needs to be addressed from a perspective where sustainability constitutes a constraint on the decision-making process,rejecting those strategies which only focus on the pursuit of wealth accumulation.Based on IPAT identity and LMDI method,a driving model and a decomposition model of energy eco-footprint were both established in this paper.By adopting the two models,the impacts of economic growth and technological progress on energy eco-footprint per capita in Jilin Province from 1994 to 2008 were analyzed.In the meanwhile,a curved surface in three dimensions that the energy eco-footprint per capita varies with GDP per capita and energy eco-footprint intensity with different proportions was drawn.The results showed that during the last 17 years,the economic growth with the sign of the GDP per capita was a major driving force whose contribution to the change in the energy eco-footprint per capita amounted to an average of 0.054 hm2 each year,while technological progress with the sign of the energy eco-footprint intensity made a negative contribution of-0.027 hm2 annually.As a whole,the economic impact was estimated to be twice as much as technological impact.Moreover,since the gap between the two impacts had widened in recent years,the energy eco-footprint per capita increased rapidly,and thus led to heavier eco-environmental pressures associated with energy consumption.In the future,technological progress should be paid more attention as it is the restriction to the increase in energy eco-footprint.In addition,with irregular fluctuation of two variables of the GDP per capita and the energy eco-footprint intensity,the pattern of the energy eco-footprint per capita will be a compound curved surface.The key point of innovation in this paper is to measure the impacts of economic growth and technological progress on energy eco-footprint by combing IPAT identity and LMDI method.At last,some detailed suggestions for slowing down the growth in energy eco-footprint were put forward.