论自然灾害风险评估的途径

Discussion on the Approaches of Natural Disaster Risk Assessment

着眼于自然灾害风险评估途径这一基础性问题,通过对自然灾害系统的深入剖析,首先构建了自然灾害风险系统的架构,明确了其构成要素的内涵;其次,基于自然灾害风险的定义,即自然灾害风险是由自然灾害系统自身演化而导致未来损失的不确定性,从自然灾害风险系统的结构要素、作用机制和演化结果入手,首次提出了自然灾害风险评估的三条途径;最后,系统地分析了每条途径的立论依据。

Aimed at the basic problem of the approaches of natural disaster risk assessment and through deep analysis on natural disaster system,in this paper,our study can be summarized as following： Firstly,the hierarchy structure of natural disaster risk system is established,and the essence of each element is clarified;Secondly,based on the definition of natural disaster risk,that the risk of natural disasters is the uncertainty of future losses resulted from the evolution of the natural disaster system itself,for the first time three approaches of natural disaster risk assessment are proposed from the angle of structure elements,interaction mechanism and evolutionary result of natural disaster risk system respectively;Thirdly,foundation of each approach is systematically analyzed.