森林火险气象条件及等级预报初探——以重庆市沙坪坝区为例

Study on Meteorological Condition and Forecast of Forest Fire Danger Grading——A Case Study in Shapingba District of Chongqing

利用沙坪坝区逐日气象资料,以及1991-2009年的森林火灾信息,探讨了森林火灾与气候背景、气温、相对湿度、降水、风速等气象条件的关系;同时结合沙坪坝区地理、气候特征,建立了沙坪坝区森林火险气象等级预报模型;并以森林火灾数据验证了火险的预报结果。结果表明,森林火灾的发生和气象条件之间存在较好的相关性,在沙坪坝区,森林火险气象等级预报可以考虑气候背景、气温、相对湿度、降水、风速等气象因素,从而得到比较准确的火险气象等级预报结果。建立的沙坪坝区森林火险气象等级预报模型,可以合理地反映出沙坪坝区森林火险气象等级的主要分布特征和年变化特征,并达到业务应用的要求。

Based on everyday meteorological data of Shapingba meteorological station and forest fire data from 1991 to 2009,the connection of forest fire and meteorological conditions such as climate background,air temperature,humidity,precipitation and wind speed is analyzed.Combined with geographical and climate character,the forecast model of forest fire danger weather grading for Shapingba is established.The forecast results were validated with the forest fire data.It showed that there is good relativity between forest fire and weather condition.Climate background,air temperature,humidity,precipitation and wind speed could be used as the forecast factor of forest fire danger weather grading for Shapingba.Accordingly,better forecast results could be gained.The results of forecast model for Shapingba could represent the character of forest fire danger grading distribution and annual change,and gain the request of service operation.