基于灰色关联度的冰川泥石流危险性评价因子分析

Analysis on Risk Assessment Factors of Glacial Debris Flow Based on Grey Correlation Degree

林芝地区是西藏地质灾害最为严重的地区之一,其中冰川泥石流灾害最为严重,特别是近年来受到全球气候变暖的影响,冰川融化速率加快,冰川泥石流灾害频繁发生,给当地造成了严重的经济损失和社会危害。通过对林芝地区冰川泥石流危险性影响因子的分析,考虑了10个影响因子,选取了研究区6条典型泥石流沟进行研究,然后运用灰色关联度法筛选出7个主要的影响因子,即日最高温度、流域面积、一次泥石流最大冲出量、主沟长度、流域最大高差、冰川积雪面积,并确定了其权重值,为冰川泥石流危险性评价体系提供了更为客观、科学合理的评价依据。

Linzhi prefecture is one of the most serious geological disasters regions in Tibet,and the glacial debris flow is the most serious one among the disasters.In recent years,under the influence of the global warming,the melting rate of glacier has accelerated and the glacial debris flows occur frequently,which cause serious economic loss and social harm.According to the analysis of risk factors to the glacial debris flow,considering 10 influence factors,6 typical debris flow torrents are selected for the research.Gray correlation degree method is applied to select such 7 main influence factors as the highest daily temperature,the torrent catchment area,a maximum runout of debris flow,the main torrent length,the biggest altitude difference of torrent catchments,and the glacier area.The values of weight are determined next,which provide a more objective and more scientific and reasonable assessment basis for risk assessment system of glacial debris flow.