地方政府财政支出对中国通货膨胀的冲击效应研究——基于凯恩斯 AD - AS 视角

Research on Impact of Local Government's Expenditure to the Inflation in China: Based on Keynes' AD-AS Perspective

基于国家干预的凯恩斯 AD - AS 视角,主要对财政货币政策与通货膨胀之间的关系进行研究,并采用 1952—2010 年中国宏观经济数据进行实证分析,结果表明: ( 1) 长期内,地方财政支出的扩张是导致通货膨胀的关键性因素; 而中央财政支出的扩张却有利于控制通货膨胀; 不同层次的货币供应量对通货膨胀的冲击则并不显著; 除此之外,通货膨胀还受到消费者预期、人民币汇率、职工工资水平和原材料购进价格的正向影响。(2) 短期内,无论是中央抑或是地方财政支出都能对通货膨胀产生负向的冲击作用; 然而,货币供应量( M0、M1、M2) 却对通货膨胀起到了明显的助推作用,且 M0与通货膨胀具有双向的 Granger 因果关系。( 3) 新时期,财政货币当局不仅需要高度关注高通胀惯性对政策效果的影响,尤其应注重财政货币政策的多重目标分解、梳理及协调配合,而且要处理好反通胀、保增长、调结构之间困难而复杂的关系,寻求三者之间的有效"平衡点"。

Based on the national intervention Keynesian AD-AS perspective, with China＇s ic time-series data from 1952 to 2010, this paper empirical analyzes relationship between fiscal and monetary policy with inflation. The results show that： （ I ） In the long term, the expansion of local financial expenditure is the key factor to inflation. However, the expenditure of central government＇s expansion can control inflation. Different levels of money supply to the inflation are not significant. In addition, inflation is influ- enced by the expectation of consumers, and RMB exchange rate, wages of employees and raw material pur- chase price of the positive influence. （2）In the short term, either local or central financial expenditure has negative impact on inflation, while money supply play a impelling force to inflation, also narrow money sup- ply and inflation is bidirectional in Granger Test. （3）Therefore, the new period of fiscal and monetary au- thorities should pay high attention to the inflation inertia influence to policy effect, especially to fiscal and monetary policy~ multiple target decomposition, sort out and coordinate with, and deal with the complex relationship between anti -inflation, maintain growth and structure adjustment, to seek a ＂balance＂.