贸易开放提高了二氧化碳排放吗?——来自中国的证据

Does Trade Openess Increase Carbon Dioxide Emissions？Evidence from China

采用中国 1990—2010 年的省级面板数据,选取排放总量和碳强度作为二氧化碳排放指标,实证考察贸易开放对中国碳排放的影响,研究发现: ( 1) 贸易开放显著提高了碳排放,"向底线赛跑"假说揭示的环境负面效应强于贸易的环境收益效应。(2) 环境库兹涅茨曲线假说在中国成立,人均收入是影响碳排放的关键因素。( 3) 贸易开放的环境效应存在时空上的结构性差异,随着时间的推移,贸易开放对环境的负面效应有所减弱; 相对于内陆地区,贸易开放对沿海地区环境的负面效应要小。在分析实证结果背后原因的基础上,得出了相应的政策启示。

This paper uses provincial data from 1990 to 2010 and selects total carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide emission intensity as index of carbon dioxide emissions to estimate impact of trade openness on China＇s carbon dioxide emissions. The main findings are as follows： （1） trade openness has negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions, and the effect of environmental gains from trade is overwhelmed by the effect of race to the bottom. （2） The hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curve applies to China and the per-capita income is a key factor affecting carbon dioxide emissions. （3） Environmental effect of trade openness has structural differences in the aspect of time and space. The negative impact of trade open- ness on environment become weak with time; Relative to inland areas, the negative impact of coastal areas＇ trade openness on environment is weaker. Corresponding policy implications are given on reasons ,analysis of empirical results.