玛纳斯河流域近30年气候要素变化研究

Study of the Recent 30-Year Climatic Elements Change in Manas River Basin

为了探索和揭示玛纳斯河流域各气候要素之间的关系,通过对该流域1983年以来逐月平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温以及降水量等数据的分析,结果表明:玛纳斯河流域近30年平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温随时间呈增加态势;1月最低气温的线性增加率为8.21℃/100a,7月最高气温的线性增加率为13℃/100a,其结果导致日较差减少;20世纪90年代末期年平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温显著升高;年平均降水量与冬季降水量变化较为相似,夏季降雨变化波动较大;降水量与气温变化呈显著正相关。

In this paper,in order to explore and reveal the relationship in each climate element in Manas River Basin,the monthly average,minimum and maximum air temperatures,the yearly average,summer and winter rainfall in Manas River Basin since 1983 were analyzed.The results are as follows：1）The annual average air temperature and the annual average daily minimum and maximum air temperatures are in an increase trend;2） The liner change rate of minimum air temperature in January is 18.77 ℃/100a,and that of maximum air temperature in July is 13 ℃/100a,which leads to the reduce of the daily range;3）The annual average air temperature and the daily maximum and minimum air temperature have sharply increased since the late-1990s;4） the change of rainfall in the year is similar with that in the winter,however the change of rainfall in the summer is more obvious;the change of rainfall is significantly and positively correlated with that of temperature.