糖尿病疾病负担预测方法研究

Study of Projecting Methods on Health Care Burden of Diabetes

目的总结国内外现有的糖尿病疾病负担预测方法,并对其未来的研究发展方向提出建议。方法通过文献综述的方法,比较分析、归纳总结糖尿病疾病负担预测方法和模型。结果目前糖尿病疾病负担的预测模型主要有静态模型、动态模型和寿命表模型,未来的研究可以尝试面板数据的多因素回归模型和系统动态模拟模型。结论现有的糖尿病疾病负担预测方法各有优缺点,将来还需要对这方面的研究进行更多的探索。

OBJECTIVE Summarize domestic and international projecting methods of diabetes burden, and make recommendations on its future research direction. METHODS Existing projecting methods and models of diabetes burden were compared and summarized by reviewing literatures. RESULTS Current projecting models of diabetes burden are static model, dynamic model and life-table model. Multivariate regression model for panel data and system simulation model should be tried in future research. CONCLUSIONS Existing projecting methods have not only advantages but also disadvantages, More explorations would be conducted in this area in future.