基于ADS-B统计数据的航路安全间隔研究

Research on Air Route Safety Separation Based on ADS-B Statistical Data

通过研究航迹分布规律,制定合适的航路宽度标准是提高空域利用率的关键所在。运用Delphi,开发基于广播式自动相关监视(ADS-B)的航迹数据处理程序。在解析实时飞行数据的基础上,以A593航路为研究对象,统计其航迹位置点与航路中心线的偏离程度。运用Q-Q(Quantile-Quantile)图中位数检验法,对其进行正态分布检验。绘制各个航班的飞行轨迹,并对数据进行拟合,对航迹分布进行统计计算,得到在3个标准差可容度下的分布规律。提出新的航路宽度值。运用危险碰撞模型(CAP),评估航路安全间隔。结果表明,利用CAP模型验证的航路两侧各8km宽的碰撞风险概率值远小于国际民航组织规定的2×10-12安全目标水平,为进一步研究基于ADS-B的飞行安全间隔提供依据。

It was held by the authors that the key to improving airspace utilization is the establishment of a proper air route width standard. A flight path data processing programme based on ADS-B was developed by using Delphi. A593 route was taken as the object of study, the deviations of track position point from route centerline were counted. A normal distribution test of the data was made with Q-Q Figure （ Quantile - Quantile） median, and the result was positive. Flight paths were drawn for each actual flight. Distribution of the paths was calculated based on parameter estimation. The distribution under 3 standard deviations was found. Then a new route width value was proposed. Air route safety separation was assessed using CAP model. The result shows that close approach probaility value is much less than the safety target level of 2×10^-12 prescribed by ICAO. And provides a theoretical basis for further research on safety assessment of flight separation on ADS-B.