区域道路交通事故伤亡风险源分类评价研究

Classification Evaluation of Regional Road Traffic Accident Casualty Risk Sources

为了系统识别区域道路交通事故伤亡风险的风险源,实现对这些风险源的定量评价,分析区域道路交通事故伤亡风险控制系统的组成要素,构建系统的控制层面作用模型。在此基础上,研究类型风险源的子风险源定量评价方法——风险源分类风险概率指数评价法。结果表明:区域道路交通事故伤亡风险控制系统由承险人员,驾驶人-车辆,道路,环境,交通流,交通安全管理,交通控制,交通安全决策等8个要素组成;运用人的因素分析和分类系统(HFACS)方法可建立区域道路交通事故伤亡风险源识别框架;用风险源分类的风险概率指数评价方法,能够得到9级定量评价结果。

In order to identify the sources of regional road traffic accident casualty risks systematically and evaluate quantitatively these sources of casualty risks, components in the control system of casualty risks of regional road traffic safety were analyzed and a functioning model for the control system on casualty risks of regional road traffic safety was built. Based on these, a method of risk probability index evaluation on the sources classification of casualty risks was worked out, which was used to evaluate quantitatively sub-sources of casualty risks. The research showed that the control system of casualty risks of regional road traffic safety was made up of eight elements of insured persons, the driver-vehicle, road, environment, traffic flow, traffic safety management, traffic control and traffic safety decision, that in this system, a framework for identifying the sources of casualty risks of regional road traffic safety could be established to classify all the sources of casualty risks with Human Factors Analysis and Classification System （HFACS）, and that risk probability index evaluation of the sources classification of casualty risks could be used to realize the quantitative evaluation of the sub-sources of casualty risks by 9 levels.