资本项目开放、金融风险传导与危机临界点预测

The Opening of Capital Accounts,Transmission of the Financial Risks and the Prediction of the Critical Point of Crisis

本文研究资本项目开放中的金融风险在国内外的传导渠道,分析资本开放度与金融风险间的量化关系,对可能引发中国金融风险的资本流动临界点进行预测。研究结果表明,冲击中国金融稳定的资本开放度临界值接近50%(48.64%),资本流动总量临界值为35500亿美元。这说明中国资本项目开放的影响仍处于安全区间,存在进一步开放空间。因此,应坚持循序渐进放开资本项目,掌握人民币资本项目开放的主动权,维持人民币汇率变动的可控性和渐进性;同时,严格资本市场金融监管,特别是国际资本流动的监测和引导,审慎管理宏观金融,实现金融开放的稳定性。

This paper reseraches the domestic and international transmission channels of the financial risks in the opening of capital accounts, analyses the quantitative relationship between the level of capital opening and the financial risks, and predicts the critical point of the capital flow that may trigger Chinese financial crisis. The results show that the critical point of the capi- tal opening which impacts the Chinese financial stability is close to 50%（48.64%）and the the critical point of the total amount of capital flow is $ 3 550 billion. The results mean that the affects of the opening of Chinese capital accounts are still in the safe range and there is a space to open further. Therefore, it＇s necessary to open the capital accounts gradually, grasp the power to open the capital accounts actively and maintain the controllability and progressiveness of the change in RMB exchange rate; meanwhile, to strengthen the financial regulation of the capital market, especially the monitoring and guidance of international capital flow, prudently manage the macro-finance and realize the stability of financial opening.