福建省马铃薯气候减产的风险分析和区划

Risk Analysis and Division for Potato Climatic Reduction in Fujian Province

根据1993-2009年福建省67个县(市)的马铃薯逐年单产资料和5a滑动平均法计算趋势产量得到历年相对气象产量,选取歉年平均减产率、歉年减产率变异系数和减产率(>5%)发生概率作为风险评估指标,采用等权重加权得到综合风险指数,制作风险区划图,对福建省马铃薯气候减产的风险进行评价和区划。结果表明,福州以南的沿海县(市)、北部山区和南部山区歉年平均减产率大,其余地区较小;南部马铃薯产量波动较明显,北部总体上波动偏轻;歉年减产率(>5%)发生概率与综合风险指数的空间分布基本一致;综合高风险区主要分布在福州以南沿海县(市)、北部浦城县及西南角武平县,低风险区主要分布在中部长汀-永安-尤溪-闽侯一线和东部,其余地区为中风险区。研究结果可为当地马铃薯的合理布局及防灾减灾提供决策依据,促进马铃薯的安全生产。

The relative meteorological yield of potato was calculated by using 5-year line moving average method based on the annual potato yield data of 67 counties from 1993 to 2009 in Fujian province. The risk division indices, including average decreasing rate during disaster years, variation coefficient of decreasing rate during disaster years, probability occurrence of decreasing rate（ 〉5% ）, were determined. The comprehensive index was then calculated by using equal weighted method and the division map was drawn for the risk analysis and division of potato climatic reduction in Fujian province. The results showed that the regions with severe risk were distributed in the coastal counties south of Fuzhou, southern mountain areas and northern mountain areas, while regions with light risk were distributed in the other areas of the province. The fluctuation of potato yield in the southern area was more obvious, and the fluctuation in the northern area was very tiny. The probability occurrence spatial distribution of decreasing rate was basically identified with the spatial distribution of comprehensive risk index. Regions with high risk were mainly distributed in the coastal counties south of Fuzhou, Pucheng in the northern Fujian and Wuping in the southern corner, the regions with low risk were mainly distributed in one line （ Changting - Yong＇an - Youxi - Minhou） in the middle areas and the eastern areas of Fujian, and the regions with moderate risk were distributed in the other areas. The resuhs could provide reference for rational distribution of potato yield and disaster prevention and reduction.